![]() ![]() ![]() Some of the insurers that mentioned an impact of COVID-19 or ARPA on their 2022 costs did not specify the factor or redacted the amount.Īmong the 91 insurers that quantified an impact of COVID-19 on their 2022 costs, the impact of COVID-19 on 2022 individual market costs ranged from -2.6% to 8.4% with half of insurers falling between no impact and 1.0% increase. Of the 311 insurer rate filings we reviewed across all states and D.C., 91 (29%) quantified a COVID-19 impact on rates in their filings, and 50 filings (16%) quantified an impact of ARPA expanded subsidies on 2022 rates. We also reviewed rate filings for the impact of the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which expanded subsidies available in the ACA health insurance Marketplaces, on 2022 average costs in the individual market. Although the Affordable Care Act (ACA) individual market represents a small share of the privately insured population, the rate filings for this market are detailed and publicly accessible, making them a useful source of information on how health insurers are thinking about their likely costs for the next year. In this brief, we reviewed final 2022 premium rate filings for Marketplace-participating individual market insurers in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Rates are finalized in early fall (October 15, 2021) ahead of the annual open enrollment period, set to begin on November 1, 2021. Insurers planning to offer health plans on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces must submit filings to state or federal regulators detailing their plan offerings and justifying their premiums for the upcoming year. Reviewing health insurer premium calculations for the coming year can give us a glimpse into how the pandemic may or may not affect health spending and utilization in the future. While uncertainty around the pandemic’s effect on health spending remains, health insurance actuaries have access to the latest health utilization and spending data and can use these data to model future trends. However, for physician services, outpatient care centers, and hospitals, spending in the second quarter of 2021 remained below expected based on pre-pandemic spending. In the second quarter of 2021, actual laboratory services revenue was somewhat above expectations based on pre-pandemic spending, likely due to increased use of COVID-19 testing services. Projected revenues were estimated based on 2018 second quarter to 2019 second quarter revenue growth rate applied to the 2019 second quarter forward to 2021. ![]() Census Bureau’s Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) data show seasonally adjusted health services revenue in the second quarter of 2021 remained below projected levels. Health services spending remained below projected levels through the second quarter of 2021 The continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic may introduce more uncertainty on future health costs. As a result of lagging vaccinations and the more infectious delta variant, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, the overwhelming majority of which are among unvaccinated people, increased over the summer. The effects of this delayed and forgone care on health spending and outcomes are yet to be seen. Thus far into the year, we have not seen pent-up demand from delayed or forgone care in the last year. Utilization of health services has remained somewhat lower than expected based on utilization levels in years before the pandemic. In April 2020, health spending dropped precipitously as providers cancelled elective care and patients practicing social distancing avoided health facilities. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted health spending and utilization trends in the United States, though it is not yet clear how long that disruption will last. ![]()
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